Identification of High-Risk Melanomas Improves With Combined Predictors | PracticeUpdate

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Identification of High-Risk Melanomas Improves With Combined Predictors

This study was designed to compare the independent risk prediction of stage I and II melanoma by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) vs a 31-gene expression profile (GEP) test and to demonstrate the utility of combining the two prognosticators. Findings identified the GEP test as a strong independent predictor of risk, and combining results from the two tools enhanced sensitivity, reflecting a more accurate identification of patients with high-risk stage I and II melanoma. 

BACKGROUND

A significant proportion of patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-defined early-stage cutaneous melanoma have disease recurrence and die. A 31-gene expression profile (GEP) that accurately assesses metastatic risk associated with primary cutaneous melanomas has been described.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to compare accuracy of the GEP in combination with risk determined using the web-based AJCC Individualized Melanoma Patient Outcome Prediction Tool.

METHODS

GEP results from 205 stage I/II cutaneous melanomas with sufficient clinical data for prognostication using the AJCC tool were classified as low (class 1) or high (class 2) risk. Two 5-year overall survival cutoffs (AJCC 79% and 68%), reflecting survival for patients with stage IIA or IIB disease, respectively, were assigned for binary AJCC risk.

RESULTS

Cox univariate analysis revealed significant risk classification of distant metastasis-free and overall survival (hazard ratio range 3.2-9.4, P < .001) for both tools. In all, 43 (21%) cases had discordant GEP and AJCC classification (using 79% cutoff). Eleven of 13 (85%) deaths in that group were predicted as high risk by GEP but low risk by AJCC.

LIMITATIONS

Specimens reflect tertiary care center referrals; more effective therapies have been approved for clinical use after accrual.

CONCLUSIONS

The GEP provides valuable prognostic information and improves identification of high-risk melanomas when used together with the AJCC online prediction tool.